Over the past decade, the meatpacking industry has bore the brunt of worksite immigration enforcement and witnessed government tactics change erratically as the nation wrestled with immigration policies. Gone, for now, are headlines showcasing raids of employers that served as the backdrop for the last ramp up to immigration reform during the Bush Administration. Instead, in another push for immigration reform, we have headlines about fines against employers and termination of unauthorized workers. In neither instance have there been headlines about stopping the employment of unauthorized workers. So, here we go again — and history shows us that the only certainty is that employers will suffer the consequences as the volume of the debate grows.

Comprehensive Immigration Reform in 2011 will not happen.

The numbers of the “undocumented” are still unmanageable to even process for legalization, and unemployment is still too high. And, despite bipartisan support for reform, the new Congress likely will drive the immigration-reform dialogue toward more enforcement and jobs for authorized workers, demanding that the nation deal with “first things first.”

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) tactics and statistics likely will be challenged in terms of their accuracy and protection of lawful workers. Ability to bar unauthorized workers from employment (not fines) will become the litmus test for measuring effective worksite enforcement necessary to enable immigration reform.

In spite of extraordinary efforts by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) over the past two years, neither the border nor worksites are secure. And, until the American public has confidence in the government to manage illegal immigration, there will be no immigration reform, regardless of widespread pandering for the Hispanic vote. During the past three decades, whenever these issues have surfaced in a push for reform, the result has been a greater surge of enforcement at the border and against employers of unskilled workers.

During the last two years, ICE discreetly expanded their presence in the meatpacking industry through service of Notices of Inspection (NOI) on employers. Substantial, record fines were levied against employers, and thousands of employees were terminated as a result of this enforcement action. Although ICE established a much broader footprint in the industry, few employers were indicted and no known company had to shut their doors as the result of these notices.

The true scope and impact of this new enforcement tactic is unknown. Employers engaged by ICE do not want others — particularly customers and competitors — to know they have received a NOI, and ICE has been able to thwart numerous disclosure requests from the media and others seeking the names of companies targeted, the amount of fines and the number of employees terminated.

As the year progresses, Congress and the media should be expected to press much harder to acquire that information in order to measure government performance and impact.

Regardless, the Administration realizes that its efforts toward barring unauthorized employment must be recognized and compelling in order to gain public support for immigration reform. They are also aware of the lines of thousands of authorized workers waiting to displace unauthorized workers in this industry throughout the country. They will step up enforcement activity.

The government also will continue its campaign to encourage employers to sign up to E-Verify for electronic employment eligibility verification and the IMAGE program for designation as a “trusted employer.”

Although E-Verify does not effectively bar the employment of unauthorized workers as claimed, it is clearly a best-practices tool that participating employers like and endorse. That said, although cooperation with the government is highly recommended whenever possible, employers should carefully consider the consequences of attempting to join the IMAGE program. The qualification process is rigorous; the politics can be challenging; and administration of the program will change with changes in leadership.

As 2011 progresses, we will see worksite enforcement again move from the shadows and into the limelight of the immigration-reform debate. Many employers have learned that they can manage this risk effectively by building immigration-compliance programs that provide for technical compliance and eliminate the potential for major disruptions associated with unauthorized workers.

Vigilance toward an authorized workforce as well as technical compliance will be important and valuable to employers as the run up to the elections in 2012 unfolds.