According to the latest USDA forecast for turkey production, during the first six months of 2011, turkey meat production was 5.5 percent higher than the same period in 2010 (2.9 billion pounds). However, the forecast for turkey meat production in the second half of 2011 is 2.9 billion pounds, down slightly (less than 1 percent) from the same period in 2010. Higher feed costs and slow growth in the domestic economy are expected to keep production relatively flat for the foreseeable future.
The odds are that crop production forecasts, especially those for corn, will get smaller in the near term, not larger. Feed is 70 percent of the cost of producing a turkey, so if production of crops such as corn and soybean shrink, meat and poultry production will grow slowly, if at all. The turkey industry will continue to work toward amending to these new economic realities.