Ground beef is by far the most consumed beef product in the US. By some estimates, between 50% and 55% of all beef in the US is consumed in ground form. Over the years, consumer demand has shifted toward leaner grinds, which is concerning now that the US is producing significantly less lean beef. The reason for the shortfall is twofold.

• First, a considerable amount of lean beef is harvested from cows, and cow inventories are currently at their lowest level in over 50 years. Improved margins for cow-calf producers have resulted in a lower culling rate. Year to date, cow slaughter is down by more than 15% from a year ago and by more than 25% from two years ago.
• Second, producers have been keeping cattle in feedlots longer to increase pounds per head. However, heavier weights do not result in a proportional increase in red meat. Cattle are coming to market with more fat, resulting in significantly more fat trimmings. These trimmings need to be blended with extra lean product to create a usable meat block. For instance, the fat content of foodservice hamburgers is typically 75% lean and 25% fat.

In a functioning market, prices rise to both ration the available supply in the domestic market and encourage other global suppliers to ship more product to the US . Steiner Consulting is forecasting US beef imports in 2024 to be 4.3 billion pounds, 600 million pounds higher than in 2023, and more than 900 million pounds higher than in 2022.

The supply of beef produced in the US and available for domestic consumption (i.e., beef production minus exports) is currently forecast at 23.8 billion pounds in 2024, down slightly from a year ago and about 900 million pounds less than in 2022. In other words, the supply available to US consumers has changed little in the last two years, thanks to the increase in the inflow of imported product.

The increase in imports has not harmed domestic producers. After all, it is in everyone's interest to sustain beef consumption. The rise in imports of lean and extra-lean grinding beef has also allowed for higher utilization of fat beef trimmings. The alternative would have been for trimmings to go into rendering at a far lower credit value.