It is risky to write about tariffs and their potential impacts, given the speed at which the situation is evolving. Changes that once took weeks or months are now happening in days.

Take, for instance, the recent example of China updating the list of establishments allowed to export products into the country. Pork and chicken were re-listed, but as of March 25, beef plants remain on hold. This could change later today, next week, or next month. The uncertainty has certainly left US packers on edge, especially considering that last year China/Hong Kong was the second-largest market for US beef, with sales exceeding $1.8 billion.

US beef already faced headwinds in the Chinese market, as an additional 10% tariff was imposed in retaliation for US tariffs on Chinese goods. The effective tariff on US beef in China now stands at 22%. However, non-tariff barriers — such as delays in establishment listings or phytosanitary issues used in the past — are even more pernicious.

US beef exports to Mexico and Canada may also encounter headwinds, as tariffs and counter-tariffs are expected to go into effect on April 2, 2025. Together, these two countries accounted for another $1.7 billion in fresh and frozen beef exports in 2024. Mexico is also a key market for US beef variety meats, with sales nearing $340 million.

Then there is the broader uncertainty regarding reciprocal tariffs that have been threatened, though the details remain unclear. Will the US impose tariffs on other key markets such as Japan and South Korea? If so, what will the response be? What about imports from Mexico, Canada, Brazil or Australia?

Some US beef producers may believe that tariffs on imported beef will drive consumers to pay more for domestic beef. However, a significant portion of imported beef from countries like Australia and Brazil complements US production. These imports are often blended with 50CL beef trimmings to make hamburgers and other prepared foods. Fat trim accounts for nearly 10% of a fed cattle carcass, and if fast food operators or other buyers can’t secure enough lean beef, more fat trim may be diverted to rendering — at pennies on the dollar.

Cattle prices are currently soaring, which is great news for producers in the short term. But in the long run, beef producers need more, not fewer, trading partners and markets.