As we head into 2025, consumers are still feeling the pressure of tightened wallets. With high gasoline prices, increasing rental rates and mounting credit card debt across the United States, the economic outlook can certainly feel bleak for shoppers in the grocery store. Despite continued economic pressures, the poultry category is positioned for a strong 2025 at retail.

Anne-Marie Roerink, principal of 210 Analytics, noted that shoppers continue to scrutinize price points and prioritize promotions and deals. “While inflation has slowed to about 2% most months, it is the cumulative impact of several years of high inflation that is having consumers concerned,” Roerink said.

With continued perceived economic strain, consumers are staying home and prioritizing grocery shopping over eating out. “More than 88% of all meal occasions throughout the month are sourced from home and you can see that in the meat, deli and frozen food numbers,” Roerink said.

As many fast food restaurants struggle to stay afloat, retail is thriving. Consumer demand for poultry is evidently strong despite economic pressures. Consumers have made it clear: Poultry is a must in the shopping cart. “Butterball’s holiday outlook survey showed that 98% of consumers expected inflation to impact their holiday plans,” said Rebecca Welch, Butterball's director of retail and international brand management. “However, consumers also told us that turkey is still the protein of choice at the Thanksgiving table and consumers would find other ways to save on their holiday meals.”

Welch noted that, over the last six months along, multiple turkey categories have shown volume growth due to the protein’s value, convenience appeal and health attributes. Convenience is the biggest growth driver right now for the turkey category, she said. 

As much as consumers have made it clear that they want poultry products, they’re making it just as clear that they do not really care about plant-based protein. With persistent category declines, hurdles like taste and texture and rising consumer sentiment over ultraprocessed and processed foods, plant-based protein is on the decline. “That means health-conscious consumers are looking for other, cleaner sources of protein and with it poultry is often a winner,” Roerink said.

As wellness and health take center stage for consumers, they are increasingly prioritizing protein in their meals. Roerink noted that, aside from affordability, a focus on better-for-you products is greatly influencing the protein industry. This given chicken and turkey a natural advantage in the store, as they are perceived to be leaner, “healthier” proteins. Poultry producers can capitalize on this consumer trend by calling out nutrition and wellness benefits on the package. 

Shoppers are willing to spend their dollars on product attributes they truly demand. At retail, shoppers want convenient meals and snacks, often heading to the grab-and-go and deli section for their cravings. “While value-added sales are down a bit, I believe this is due to substitution to the deli department where there are an ever growing range of chicken items available,” Roerink said.

Within fully cooked meat, rotisserie chicken sales have climbed 10% in units, Roerink said. The fully cooked chicken category, in general, is growing. “It reflects the hybrid nature of today’s meal in which most consumers prepare some items from scratch and lean on semi and fully prepared items (including frozen) for other parts of the meal,” Roerink said. “Deli-prepared foods have truly stepped in as restaurant alternatives this year as consumers are looking to save money on eating out from restaurants.”

Roerink predicts value-added poultry will continue its growth trajectory, driven by younger-consumer purchasing preferences.

Younger consumers are driving another poultry category trend: duck products. Maple Leaf Farms Vice President of Sales & Marketing Carmen Darland said that Millenial consumers are increasingly buying duck in multiple formats. As Millenial consumers opt for easier cooking applications, such as grills, smokers and air fryers, they are increasingly utilizing fully cooked duck products.

“We also have millennials that are using grills and smokers more often to make traditional whole duck and duck breast items throughout the year,” Darland said. “They also love ground duck, which is a familiar format that can easily be used for sliders or tacos.”

Duck’s versatility is helping it become more of an everyday protein option, rather than a meal for a special occasion, Joey Jurgielewicz III, Director of Business Development at Joe Jurgielewicz & Son Ltd.

Jurgielewicz is seeing growth in the duck category across both retail and foodservice. He noted that Asian cuisine and adventurous eaters are driving category growth. “Duck has secured its place on the American menu, from home-cooked meals to Michelin-starred restaurants,” Jurgielewicz. “As duck becomes more accessible, sales projections only grow stronger.”

As restaurants face mounting pressures, including a strained labor force, rising food costs and a transition to at-home eating, operators are searching for solutions to alleviate any strain. Darland noted that the biggest purchasing trend she’s noticed throughout the year has been increased interest in the company’s Labor Savor line.

Since foodservice operators are dealing with so many hurdles, they are utilizing every aspect of the duck to minimize food waste. “Breaking down a duck is straightforward, and resourceful chefs can boost revenue by utilizing every part,” Jurgielewicz said.

General retail poultry purchasing trends are the same in the duck category, as consumers seek out convenient precooked duck offerings. Another consumer trend, health and wellness, has made its mark on the duck category. “Rendered duck fat is … gaining popularity as a delicious and trendy alternative to seed oils,” Jurgielewicz said. As shoppers increasingly seek out high-protein products, duck has potential for major retail growth.

Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO+, 52 weeks ending 11/3/2024