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BeefSpecial Reports

State of the Industry 2019 | Beef

State of the Beef Industry 2019

Perfecting its strategy

By Rick Husted
Pair of Dice
October 10, 2019

The beef industry has much to celebrate in 2019. From continued growth in demand to having a sizeable presence on the dinner plate at home and in restaurants, consumers clearly continue to crave beef.

 

Beef demand

During the past several years, demand for beef has steadily increased. This trend has continued in 2019 and is driven in large part by increased U.S. per capita beef consumption which is forecast to increase for the fourth straight year, growing from 53.9 pounds in 2015 to a projected 57.7 pounds by the end of 2019.

State of the Industry 2019

Overview
Beef (NCBA)
Pork
Chicken
Food Safety
Packaging
Beef (CAB)
Turkey
Veal
Lamb
Animal Welfare
Seafood
Workforce

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This increased demand is already evident at retail. According to the Annual U.S. Retail Beef Demand Index, beef sales will remain favorable and continue to trend higher in 2019, as they have since 2012. This trend was reflected in 2018 with ground beef generating an additional $850 million in sales over the previous year.

In addition to beef’s solid retail performance, beef sales at foodservice were also strong in 2018, the most recent year of complete data, staying considerably higher than in 2015-16. Ground beef again led beef sales, followed by pre-cut steaks and roasts. A 2018 survey of foodservice operators, funded by the Beef Checkoff, found having steak on the menu helps to increase traffic, eliminate the veto vote, attract larger parties and even drive up the average check price by encouraging additional purchases of items such as appetizers, alcohol and desserts.

Thanks to beef’s continued success at both retail and foodservice, expenditures on beef are forecast to reach an all-time high of $110 billion in 2019.

ANNUAL BEEF FORECASTS

  2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Production (million lb.) 25,221 26,187 26,872 27,043 27,565
Per capita disappearance
(retail lb.)*
55.6 57.0 57.2 57.4 57.8
Beef and veal exports
(million lb.)
2,557 2,859 3,161 3,151 3,245
Beef and veal imports
(million lb.)
3,012 2,993 2,998 3,045 2,960

Forecasts are in bold. * Per capita meat disappearance data are calculated using the Resident Population Plus Armed Forces Overseas series from the Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce. All data as of Aug. 15, 2019. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Supporting Materials. For further information, contact: Mildred M. Haley, mhaley@ers.usda.gov

 

Consumer insights

In addition to tracking beef demand and consumption, the Beef Checkoff monitors and conducts extensive research on consumer attitudes toward the foods they purchase. The new Consumer Beef Tracker, launched in June 2018 by the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, a contractor for the Beef Checkoff, found that almost half of consumers consider beef to be their No. 1 protein choice, and almost 70 percent of consumers have a positive perception of beef. Additionally, consumers consider beef’s taste by far the top reason for wanting to eat more beef.

JERKY: TOP 10 RETAIL BRANDS

Brand Dollar Sales Dollar Sales % Chg YAgo Unit Sales Unit Sales % Chg YAgo
Jack Link's $776,173,683 4.1% 130,588,724 -0.4%
Old Trapper $167,709,813 31.0% 15,377,735 31.0%
Private Label $159,938,156 9.6% 38,273,322 17.7%
Bridgford Sweet Baby Ray's $98,495,532 10.6% 20,855,969 8.3%
Tillamook Country
Smoker
$45,793,725 25.5% 10,142,274 5.5%
Oberto $36,178,146 -14.1% 6,591,465 -13.3%
Krave $33,017,666 -31.0% 6,336,144 -31.4%
Cattleman's Cut $25,239,240 52.9% 2,483,202 88.5%
No Man's Land $25,234,774 32.9% 2,653,639 30.5%
Lorissa's Kitchen $18,263,239 -8.2% 3,719,860 6.0%
Total Jerky $1,674,965,938 3.9% 286,549,492 1.8%
Total Dried Meat
Snacks
$3,296,681,677 6.7% 1,011,537,977 3.5%

Source: IRI, a Chicago-based market research firm (@iriworldwide). Total US Multi-Outlet w/ C-Store (Grocery, Drug, Mass Market, Convenience, Military and Select Club & Dollar Retailers), latest 52 weeks ending Aug. 11, 2019. Note: Rankings of top brands are NOT totaled brand listings (e.g. all UPCs or brand extensions rolled up into a single figure, such as Total Crest Toothpaste), but are rather individual brand listings.

 

Beef quality

Thanks to the dedication of beef farmers and ranchers, consumers can enjoy more high-quality beef than ever before, with more than 80 percent of beef grading the highest available USDA quality grades of Prime or Choice. The beef industry has spent decades adjusting factors on the farm and beyond that determine beef’s quality and grade. As more research and data on genetic selection, feed and nutrition has become available, producers have been able to improve the quality of cattle they raise and how those animals are cared for. Additionally, beef supply chain partners have become smarter about product handling techniques such as chilling and aging of beef, which can lead to a higher-quality eating experience. This continued product improvement goes to show the ongoing commitment beef farmers and ranchers have to producing the high-quality product consumers desire.

 

Meat substitutes

While it is clear consumers crave beef’s great taste and want more of it, there has been a lot of interest in the emergence of new meat alternative products this year. Despite ongoing headlines about these plant-based meat substitutes, they are not dominating sales, with just 1 percent share of pounds sold at retail in 2018. Additionally, while there is some consumer and media interest in these meat substitutes, research shows that the majority of those trying these products still eats beef and not reducing the amount of beef consumed.

OTHER DRIED MEAT SNACKS: TOP 10 RETAIL BRANDS

Brand Dollar Sales Dollar Sales % Chg YAgo Unit Sales Unit Sales % Chg YAgo
Slim Jim $588,380,621 4.5% 302,022,905 1.2%
Jack Link's $388,649,832 4.6% 151,904,399 6.6%
Old Wisconsin $73,989,093 53.1% 14,480,144 34.0%
Jack Link's Wild $72,600,608 224.0% 33,072,636 210.4%
Matador by Jack Link's $57,225,609 45.0% 26,311,617 10.3%
Duke's $50,205,414 33.9% 9,480,087 30.1%
Jack Link's All American $34,838,372 1.2% 21,965,974 1.3%
Private Label $32,877,035 59.7% 14,103,501 5.2%
Penrose Big Mama $32,678,164 5.0% 18,897,273 0.3%
Tillamook Country
Smoker
$32,341,854 6.8% 21,182,979 0.9%
Total All Other Meat
Snacks
$1,621,715,739 9.8% 724,988,485 4.2%

Source: IRI, a Chicago-based market research firm (@iriworldwide). Total US Multi-Outlet w/ C-Store (Grocery, Drug, Mass Market, Convenience, Military and Select Club & Dollar Retailers), latest 52 weeks ending Aug. 11, 2019.
Note: Rankings of top brands are NOT totaled brand listings (e.g. all UPCs or brand extensions rolled up into a single figure, such as Total Crest Toothpaste), but are rather individual brand listings.

 

Meet Chuck Knows Beef

With beef demand on the rise and consumers continuing to choose beef, it is important to provide consumers with resources to create enjoyable at-home beef eating experiences. To this end, in early 2019, Beef. It’s What’s For Dinner. introduced the all-knowing virtual beef assistant, Chuck Knows Beef. Funded by beef farmers and ranchers, Chuck was designed to be a go-to consumer resource for all things beef, providing instant access to recipes, cuts, nutrition information and cooking tips plus a whole lot more. To date, Chuck has had more than 1 million visitors.

For more than 25 years, the iconic Beef. It’s What’s For Dinner. brand, funded by the Beef Checkoff and managed by the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, has helped to promote beef and its many benefits. And today, with beef production on the rise, Beef. It’s What’s For Dinner. is helping increase per capita beef consumption by leveraging beef’s greatest strengths — the powerful and complete protein beef provides, the amazing stories of the people who raise beef and the unforgettable pleasurable eating experience of beef. NP

KEYWORDS: state of beef state of the industry

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Rick Husted is vice president, Strategic Planning & Market Research for National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA), A Contractor of the Beef Checkoff.

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