“Keep calm and eat turkey.”

When the National Turkey Federation (NTF) team saw a T-shirt with that phrase at one of our Turkey Smoke barbecue competitions over the summer, it made for an amusing social media post. At the same time, the phrase has also resonated with us as a reflection on the turkey industry over the past few months. While the protein market has seen its share of ups and downs this year, the turkey industry has focused on finding balance in the marketplace, investing in the future of the industry and identifying new markets and audiences for our products. This includes a new project laying the groundwork for the turkey industry to position more retail and foodservice products in the barbecue space.

Boosting consumption and balancing supply with demand remain areas where the turkey industry certainly continues to face challenges, but in 2019 the market held relatively steady overall. Over the past year, the turkey industry continued to work collectively to address food safety concerns. This undoubtedly had some impact on turkey sales in the latter half of 2018 and into 2019. Additionally, the volume of turkey products in cold storage has decreased year-over-year as of August, but still remains higher than the industry would like, particularly in the breast meat category. U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data shows the national price per pound of frozen hen turkeys is trending above 2018 prices, which the industry remains optimistic will hold going into the holiday season.

Advancing turkey health

Healthy flocks are central to a profitable turkey industry both today and into the future. As year-round stewards of their flocks, turkey growers compete with a host of factors to maintain the health and wellbeing of their birds. While NTF has long prioritized advancing turkey health and welfare, the industry has placed an enhanced focus on efforts to prevent animal disease and improve flock health over the past year. Working with both the federal government and animal health experts, the turkey industry has seen notable successes in these areas.

The hard lessons of the devastating highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak in 2015 made it even clearer that the first step in protecting flocks from foreign diseases is prevention. The turkey industry has taken numerous, highly effective steps to bolster the biosecurity of farms and prepare for any future outbreak, but there is a need for a more comprehensive, proactive approach at the federal level to ensure animal agriculture is well-equipped to immediately respond to a crisis.

Forecasts are in bold. * Per capita meat disappearance data are calculated using the Resident Population Plus Armed Forces Overseas series from the Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce. All data as of Aug. 15, 2019. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Supporting Materials. For further information, contact: Mildred M. Haley, mhaley@ers.usda.gov

By ensuring the industry’s “voice” is heard on Capitol Hill, NTF played a key role in securing a significant win for our members in the 2018 Farm Bill. The bill’s creation of a three-part animal health program, including the new National Animal Disease Preparedness and Response Program, is part of a larger strategy to prevent animal pests and diseases from entering the United States and proactively reduce the spread and impact of potential disease threats. As implementation of Farm Bill programs continues, NTF and the turkey industry are ready to work alongside the U.S. Department of Agriculture to ensure growers have access to enhanced tools and resources needed to effectively prevent, identify and respond to animal health threats.

Additionally, NTF’s Turkey Health Task Force has made significant gains in identifying priority areas for the industry, forging new lines of communication with federal agencies and advancing research on bird health. NTF has also formed a targeted subcommittee on turkey arthritis reovirus to pinpoint research needs and develop priorities to combat this disease, which causes lameness in turkeys and results in costly losses for growers. NTF also purchased 10 isolator cages for North Carolina State University to use in turkey health trials. Numerous other projects are also underway. NTF’s efforts to focus the attention of government and animal health partners on the need for research and interventions to further improve bird health will continue into 2020.

Source: IRI, a Chicago-based market research firm (@iriworldwide). Total US Multi-Outlet w/ C-Store (Grocery, Drug, Mass Market, Convenience, Military and Select Club & Dollar Retailers), latest 52 weeks ending Aug. 11, 2019. Note: Rankings of top brands are NOT totaled brand listings (e.g. all UPCs or brand extensions rolled up into a single figure, such as Total Crest Toothpaste), but are rather individual brand listings.

Increasing export opportunities

In recent months, factors affecting global protein production have played a role in higher demand for turkey parts and dark-meat cuts in the export market. Building off this demand and the efforts by NTF to open markets to U.S. turkey products, exports remain a space where turkey can grow.

The U.S. turkey industry exports roughly 10 percent of our products annually. While the volume of turkey exported is steadily on the rise, the industry has yet to fully recover export sales lost as a result of the 2015 HPAI outbreak. Recovery from HPAI, coupled with political obstacles that have kept some markets — such as China and Russia — closed to U.S. poultry, has required the turkey industry to reassess our industry goals related to exports. Part of NTF’s expanded focus on exports is bringing turkey to new customers in places such as India, Australia and Latin America. India, in fact, has begun to buy some American turkey products, which is encouraging.

While the turkey industry is pursuing new export opportunities, it is also critical that we maintain our current trade relationships. Since 2014, more than 60 percent of U.S. turkey exports have gone to Mexico. That is why NTF has fully endorsed the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Ensuring this partnership remains uninterrupted is paramount to turkey businesses on both sides of the border.

Source: IRI, a Chicago-based market research firm (@iriworldwide). Total US Multi-Outlet w/ C-Store (Grocery, Drug, Mass Market, Convenience, Military and Select Club & Dollar Retailers), latest 52 weeks ending Aug. 11, 2019. Note: Rankings of top brands are NOT totaled brand listings (e.g. all UPCs or brand extensions rolled up into a single figure, such as Total Crest Toothpaste), but are rather individual brand listings.

Following the (Turkey) Smoke

The turkey industry is paying close attention to movements in the protein marketplace. As we’re thinking about how to get more turkey on plates, it’s clear that we also have to change the way customers think about serving turkey. NTF’s Turkey Smoke is a unique turkey barbecue competition that was developed to introduce the versatility of turkey to the barbecue community. Barbecue is a fast-growing industry. Seven in 10 Americans own a grill and more families are grilling year-round. Turkey Smoke easily fits into any barbecue competition and has seen an enthusiastic response from some of the biggest names in the business. The goal of this industry-wide initiative is to see turkey become an expected option in competitions, on barbecue menus and ultimately on backyard grills.

Targeted investments made by the turkey industry in 2019 will continue to propel the industry forward in the year to come. And remember to keep calm and eat more turkey. NP