September in review

• Hurricane Helene caused significant stocking up on grocery basics in the Southeastern states during the last week of September. The pattern repeated during the week ending October 6^th in advance of hurricane Milton. See the “What’s Next?” section at the end of the report for more information on the hurricane impact on grocery purchases. The storms caused significant agricultural and infrastructure damage that could impact the supply chain in the shorter- and longer-term. Our thoughts go out to all those affected by the historic flooding and unimaginable losses. 
• Some consumers also stocked up leading up to the Gulf and Eastern port strike that handle over half of U.S. important and export volumes — causing disrupted grocery buying patterns across the nation in late September. 
• The Consumer Sentiment Index by the University of Michigan stood at 70.1 points in September, representing a slight increase from the August 2024 reading of 67.9 points. The university links the moderate improvement to a slight increase in the expectations for the economy, though consumers’ assessment of current conditions remained unchanged, at 69.0 points. Historically, consumer sentiment tracks along with GDP growth/decline, is strongly related to unemployment rates, sensitive to inflation rates, influenced by interest rates, and closely tied to real personal income growth/decline. This explains the stubbornly low consumer sentiment since early 2024. 
• Low sentiment has resulted in fewer restaurant visits and a greater share of food dollars moving to retail. Most departments achieved real growth with year-over-year increases in units and/or volume. 
• While consumers are focused on price and promotions, it’s rarely the only consideration going into the purchase. There are no linear consumer purchase patterns, which makes the marketplace complex but also ripe with opportunities for growth. 

Inflation insights

In September 2024 (the four weeks ending 9/29/2024), the price per unit across all foods and beverages in the Circana MULO+ universe stood at $4.25, an increase of 2.1% over September 2023. The third quarter of the year averaged an increase of 1.8% across all food and beverages. This is up over the second quarter (+1.5%) with the inflation rate having shown slightly higher increases over the past few months. Perishable prices were up 3.3% year-over-year in August versus 1.5% in the center of the store. Egg prices spiked due to continued HPAI outbreaks that have impacted 101 million birds in the U.S. since 2022. The average price of $4.25 is 35.8% higher than the 2019, pre-pandemic average of $3.13.  

The average price per pound in the meat department across all cuts and kinds, both fixed and random weight, stood at $4.74 in September 2024, up 2.2% year-on-year. The average processed meat price stayed above $5, though down 1.1% versus prior-year levels. 

September brought a mix of price movements. Beef and hot dogs had the highest year-over-year price increases, whereas the prices for turkey, lamb, bison, bacon and processed chicken came down.

Meat sales 

September was a very strong month for the meat department, especially on the fresh meat side. The four September weeks generated $7.9 billion, which was up 5.5% over September 2023, with pound gains of 3.3%. 

 In the 52-week view, dollars now trend 3.7% ahead of last year. This increase reflects a combination of mild price increases and pound gains of 1.4%. Pound growth is driven by strong everyday and holiday demand for meat and poultry as the world has turned home-centric once more. 

All four September weeks experienced volume growth in comparison to year-ago levels. The first week of September reflects the Labor Day holiday bump, with weekly sales of $2.1 billion. The last September week reflects some of the stocking up behavior in advance of the port strikes and hurricane Helene. This resulted in a pound increase of 3.5% versus last year.

With September delivering another strong performance, the year-to-date meat department sales reached $76.8 billion, which reflects an increase of 4.4%. Year-to-date pound sales reached 16.5 billion, which is up 2.1% over the same period last year. 

Assortment

Meat department assortment, measured in the number of weekly items per store, averaged 424 SKUs in September\ 2024. That number has been very steady all year and trends about 50 items below pre-pandemic levels.

Fresh meat sales by protein 

All proteins reflect strong September sales, with double-digit increases for lamb. For beef, the increase in pounds (+5.4%) in combination with inflation led to an increase of 10.9% in dollar sales compared to September 2023. Turkey also had a very strong month, up 10.8% in pounds. In the full-year view, lamb has the highest year-on-year pound increases, at +14.4%, followed by exotic (mostly bison), chicken and beef. 

Processed meat 

September was a much better month than August for processed meat. Dollar sales were flat and pounds increased 1.1% year-over-year. The gains were driven by bacon, dinner sausage and processed chicken. Packaged lunchmeat sales were down 3.0% in pounds. In the full-year view, processed meat volume sales are now very close to last year’s levels.  

Grinds
 Ground beef had another enormous month, with $1.2 billion in sales during the four September weeks. This was an increase of 9.6% in dollars and 2.7% in pounds versus September 2023. Ground turkey and chicken sales also improved, whereas ground lamb sales struggled. Monthly ground veal sales have fallen below $1 million. 

What’s next?

Grocery patterns in late September and early October were heavily impacted by consumers stocking up in advance of the Eastern seaboard port strikes and hurricanes Helene and Milton. To illustrate, during the week in advance of hurricane Milton making landfall in Florida, total food and beverage sales at retail increased 16.8% in the Southeast, with substantial spikes in beverages, meat and shelf-stable items.  

• Fall sets are up around the store as all things pumpkin, maple and hot chocolate take centerstage. Across categories, holidays and celebrations are the number one reason when consumers are willing to spend a little more than planned. The fourth quarter is the largest for many categories. 
• California passed a historic law making it the first U.S. state to prohibit public schools from using six artificial food dyes, taking effect on Dec. 31, 2027. The policy will ban all school meals containing Red 40, Yellow 5 & 6, Blue 1 & 2, and Green 3 dyes. 

 Date ranges: 

2023: 52 weeks ending 12/31/2023

Q1 2024: 13 weeks ending 3/31/ 2024

Q2 2024: 13 weeks ending 6/30/2024

Q3 2024: 13 weeks ending 9/29/2024

September 2024: 4 weeks ending 9/29/2024