Most retail categories continue to outperform their pre-pandemic normal as life remains more home centric. Consumer sentiment, a good indicator of willingness and ability to spend, declined for the third consecutive month. The University of Michigan expectations index fell to 68.2 in June 2024 driven by consumers’ more cautious outlook on the economy, with concerns about the labor market along with the lingering and cumulative impact of inflation. 

• Food-away-from-home (restaurant) prices increased 4.1% year-over-year in June versus 1.1% for food-at-home, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. According to the June Circana survey among primary grocery shoppers, 79% of consumers consumed restaurant food in June. However, broken out by income, only 63% of low-income households did so versus 85% of upper-income households. 
• Lower-income households are also more likely to implement money-saving measures when shopping for groceries, at 84% versus 76% of upper-income households. Lower-income households especially over index for buying less and sticking to the budget, switching to store brands and shopping at value retailers. All income levels and ages are focused on sales promotions and coupons. 
• Many brands and retailers alike are turning to discounting, increased app investments, and new or improved loyalty programs to retain consumers and increase buying frequency. According to Circana analytics, promotional lifts continue to be soft despite the depth and frequency increasing. This underscores the importance of targeted promotions to create utmost relevance and impulse conversion. 
• Channel shifting also continues. Thinking about their last grocery trip, 83% shopped in store, 8% did home delivery and 9% placed an online order with pickup, according to the June Circana survey.
• Placer.ai found that ALDI, in particular, has gained in foot traffic over the past few years. The overall grocery segment grew visits by 7.9% year-over-year, while ALDI grew foot traffic by 26.3%. This is driven by new stores as well as an increase in visits to individual locations. ALDI also showed growth in loyalty, with 30.1% of shoppers visiting ALDI at least four times in a month, up from 28% last year, according to Placer.ai.

 Inflation insights

In June 2024 (the four weeks ending 6/30/2024), the price per unit across all foods and beverages in the Circana MULO+ universe increased 1.3% versus June 2023. Prices in the fresh perimeter were up 1.2% in June versus year ago, whereas center-store grocery prices increased 1.9% — the smallest difference seen in several years between the two areas of the store. The June prices across food and beverages were 33%-35% higher than they were pre-pandemic. 

The average price per pound in the meat department across all cuts and kinds, both fixed and random weight, stood at $4.73 in June 2024, up 3.2% from year-on-year. The average processed meat price moved above $5, up 2.0% versus prior-year levels. June inflation exceeds the 52-week inflation levels for both fresh and processed meat.  

June brought a mix of price movements. Pork, beef and bacon, in particular, experienced increases in price. This is a reversal for bacon that had been experiencing deflation throughout much of 2023 and the early part of 2024. Lamb, turkey and processed chicken experienced substantial price declines. 

Meat sales 

Year-to-date, volume sales have been positive every month with the one exception of April when the shift in Easter timing overrode the general strength of everyday demand. In June, fresh meat pounds were flat versus last year and 0.5% versus two years ago. Mild inflation pushed dollars for both processed and fresh meat into the plus.  

In the 52-week view, pound sales stayed in positive territory, up 0.7% versus last year and up 0.2% versus two years ago. This is also driven by the strength of demand for fresh meat.

A look at sales trends over the past 52 weeks shows that:

• Value-added meat sales continue to trail conventional products across proteins. Whereas value-added fresh meat sales were up 2.3%, unprepared items increased dollar sales by 4.3%. Likewise, volume sales for value-added fresh meat was up 0.2% versus 1.5% for regular fresh meat and poultry. 
• Organic is having a big year, with dollar sales up 9.8% and pounds up 8.3%. 
• Grass-feed beef is also experiencing strong growth in dollars, units and pounds. 

Three out of the four June weeks experienced volume growth in comparison to year-ago levels. The final week ending June 30^th pulled down the positive momentum to result in the 0.5% decrease for the entire month of June. Without a doubt, this is due to the timing of the Fourth of July holiday relative to the Sunday month ending in the Circana data. Sales will shift more into July, which will mean the Independence Day sales bump will show up more in next month’s report. 

With June delivering another strong performance, the year-to-date meat department sales reached $50.7 billion, which reflects an increase of 3.6%. Year-to-date pound sales reached 11 billion, which is up 1.5% over the same period last year. 

Assortment

Meat department assortment, measured in the number of weekly items per store, averaged 428 SKUs in June 2024 — holding steady around 50 items below pre-pandemic levels.

Fresh meat sales by protein 

Chicken, lamb and exotic (bison, fowl and other specialty proteins) had very strong June pound gains. Beef experienced a virtually flat pound performance. In the 52-week view, more and more proteins are starting to track ahead year-on-year in pound sales as well. This includes fresh beef that has experienced above-average inflation due to tight supply conditions. Fresh chicken increased pound sales 3.1% year-on-year and lamb (while a smaller seller) is pacing 11.4% ahead of year-ago levels. 

Processed meat 

Processed meat experienced a small dollar increase, but pound decline of 1.6% in June. However, some items continued to do well, including packaged lunchmeat, smoked ham and processed chicken. In the full-year view, pounds are tracking 0.8% behind year-ago levels, with an above-average performance for dinner and breakfast sausage. 

Grinds
Grinds had a bit of a mixed performance, but it is important to keep the timing of the July Fourth holiday in mind versus the June report cut off of June 30^th. With the Thursday timing of the holiday, big barbecue cuts such as steak and ground beef sales are likely to see much of the holiday sales move into the July report. Even so, ground beef sales were down a mere 1.3%, and up 1.7% over the latest 52 weeks.

What’s next?

• 67% of Americans celebrated the Fourth of July with some kind of special activity. Forty percent got together with friends or family and 27% organized a barbecue/cookout. Plans for Labor Day are shaping up similarly. 
• The June Circana survey continues to find that shoppers look to save money on limiting restaurant visits (13% of consumers), while cooking from scratch more often (22% of consumers). 
• Four in 10 consumers, 43%, are planning to entertain as much or more this summer, with parties or small gatherings. Many sporting events, including the Summer Olympics, and summer holidays provide a great opportunity to get consumers to splurge a little more. 

The next performance report in the Circana, 210 Analytics and Hillphoenix series will be released mid-August to cover the July sales trends. Please thank the entire meat and poultry industry, from farm to store, for all they do.

 Date ranges: 

 2023: 52 weeks ending 12/31/2023

Q1 2024: 13 weeks ending 3/31/ 2024

Q2 2024: 13 weeks ending 6/30/2024

June 2024: 4 weeks ending 6/30/2024