Global food and agribusiness bank Rabobank recently released its annual BBQ Index and hosted a webinar to discuss the findings. Rabobank's analyst findings outline that summer grilling might be a welcome respite from tariffs and trade wars—even though food prices are up, foods used in summer grilling primarily utilize domestic supply chains. This means mostly domestic reasons for those price increases.

The Rabobank BBQ Index assumes an average American barbecue situation ahead of summer grilling season. This includes 10 adults, with each consuming the same amount of food. As a means of comparison, the BBQ Index parallels the Bureau of Labor Statistics as a data source. Rabobank selected the monthly data series "average price index, US city average."

For 2025, the index highlights a 10-person barbecue is 4.21% more expensive this year than last. The total cost for a 10-person barbecue in 2025 is $103. The index uncovered that overall barbecue costs are mainly being driven by beef and chicken. 

"On the whole, Americans still spend less of our wallet on food than our counterparts in most other nations, but that gap is closing across the board," said Tom Bailey, senior consumer foods analyst, Rabobank.

Prices have risen for many ingredients found in a traditional summer barbecue. However, despite the increase, the essential items for summertime grilling have not been hit as hard by inflation as some other consumer goods.

With 90-95% of barbecue ingredients being sourced domestically, current trade conflicts are having a small impact on the summer grilling experience. A strong domestic supply chain for many of the items on the table means that the price increases are due to factors other than trade uncertainty.

Senior Beef Analyst for Rabobank Lance Zimmerman said, "Beef supply, especially the fresh product Americans like to grill, is mostly domestic. Prices are up, but the reasons include a continued strong demand for beef despite economic concerns coupled with a years-long downward trend in supply."

The beef cowherd size has been decreasing since 2019, leading to supply constraints. However, consumers have maintained their beef purchases despite economic difficulties, resulting in higher prices due to the combination of limited supply and robust demand. The cattle herd is now at a 74-year low--tight cattle and beef supplies combined with strong demand are set to keep beef prices elevated for the next several years.

The high price of beef is leading consumers and foodservice companies alike to consider chicken more as an alternative. Chicken breast meat prices are up 16% versus 2024. These price increases have mainly been driven by strong foodservice demand, as well as the new chicken wars in the tenders category. Dark meat prices are also strong. This is partly due to the high price of breast meat, as well as a shift in consumer demand toward dark meat, particularly during the grilling season.

The webinar reinforced that consumer trends are underdoing strong bifurcation: value seekers are looking for deals, while other consumers not as impacted by price increases are searching out premium options. Private-label grocery share exceeded 20% for the first time in 2024, reinforcing the strength of value-driven purchases.

Supply and demand dynamics and inflation are driving prices for backyard barbecues up for 2025. Luckily, the American summer barbecue experience is linked to a primarily domestic supply chain, shielding this summer's grillers from the uncertainties of the tariff landscape.