Restaurant industry: Persistent cost increases and strong demand shape year ahead

Restaurant and foodservice employment is projected to reach 15.8 million jobs in 2026.

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America's restaurant industry is poised for a year of measured growth, though a cooling labor market, persistent cost pressures and cautious household spending will continue to challenge operator margins. According to the National Restaurant Association's 2026 State of the Restaurant Industry report, total restaurant and foodservice sales are projected to reach $1.55 trillion and restaurant operators are forecast to add more than 100,000 jobs.

This projected growth reflects an industry navigating a mixed economic landscape: operators are facing uneven traffic and elevated operating expenses, while consumers – particularly those in lower- and middle-income households – are increasingly stretched. Even so, restaurants remain deeply woven into American culture, with the majority of adults continuing to prioritize dining out, takeout and delivery, even when budgets tighten.

"Restaurants remain an economic powerhouse that, even when faced with soft consumer spending and sustained margin pressures, drives job growth and fosters entrepreneurship," said Michelle Korsmo, president and CEO of the National Restaurant Association. "The industry's resilience is driven by its people, its adaptability and its ability to evolve alongside consumers, making continued investment in workforce, innovation and smart policy solutions essential to long-term growth."

Key findings from the report

Modest growth is projected, but under continued pressures. Operators remain cautiously optimistic, even as rising costs and softer traffic persist. Many operators expect sales to hold steady or improve this year, and the National Restaurant Association forecasts modest real sales growth of 1.3%.

Consumer demand remains solid, but their spending power is restrained. Consumers have strong pent-up demand for restaurant experiences. More than 7 in 10 consumers say they would use restaurants more frequently if they had more disposable income. This desire is especially strong among Gen Z and millennials, who continue to lead the industry's off-premises growth.

The industry workforce will continue to grow, though it will be challenging to fill the open positions. Restaurant and foodservice employment is projected to reach 15.8 million jobs in 2026. Nearly three quarters of operators plan to hire but expect difficulties finding experienced managers and chefs. Longer term labor force challenges — particularly the shrinking 16-to 24-year-old population — underscore the need for sustained workforce development and immigration reform.

Rising costs remain the industry's key stressor and is limiting operator margins. More than 9 in 10 operators cite food, labor, insurance, energy and swipe fees as significant challenges. Last year, 42% of operators reported their restaurant was not profitable – highlighting the need for operational innovation, workforce investment and smart policy solutions.

Workforce development and technology could help release some of the margin pressure. In the current economic environment, restaurant operators are investing in training and tools to support hospitality with technology-driven efficiency. Advances in ordering, AI and data analytics are helping operators streamline operations, manage costs and enhance the customer experience.

Snapshot of the year ahead

The uncertainty of 2025 will persist in 2026, requiring operators to rely on their creativity and adaptability to stay agile in the shifting operating environment. This will mean balancing restrained consumer spending and elevated costs by leveraging technology to create efficiencies that bring down costs and free up staff to focus on consumer experiences.

Operators will be focused on investments in innovative solutions like digital ordering and payments, loyalty programs, automation and targeted marketing that are strengthening customer engagement and removing friction points from the dining experience.

When it comes to the workforce guiding the consumer experience, operators are committed to building skilled, adaptable employees through training and technology. This investment continues to shape the entire US workforce, because more people have worked in restaurants than in any other industry, highlighting the industry's role in individual career growth.

All of this comes together to serve a customer hungry with curiosity and looking for value, not only in price, but in experience.

"Success for operators this year will hinge on their ability to get the math right in a still‑challenging economic environment," said Chad Moutray, chief economist for the National Restaurant Association. "After a year when 60% of operators reported softer customer traffic, there is cautious optimism for improvement. At the same time, operators remain laser‑focused on controlling costs while delivering value and providing satisfying menu innovation that resonates with consumers."

The 2026 State of the Restaurant Industry Report is the National Restaurant Association's annual analysis of the industry's size, sales, workforce, technology, menu trends, and consumer and operator sentiment. It serves as a guiding resource for operators, suppliers, policymakers and media.

Source: National Restaurant Association