Barring a disruptive event, 2018 should be another Goldilocks year for chicken producers/processors. “Not too hot, not too cold” characterizes chicken market conditions for 2017 with indicators pointing to a repeat situation in the New Year. With 2018’s production increase most likely matching the pace in 2017 and 2016, one of the basic fundamentals determining the outlook appears to be somewhat given. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) forecast for broiler production in 2018 is for a nearly 2 percent or so gain over 2017, compared with an almost similar increase in 2016.
One ongoing challenge, however, is the slippage between weekly eggs being set for hatching and the resulting day-old chicks available to be placed on growout farms. In 2017, 3 percent more eggs were being were set in incubators, but only 2 percent more baby chicks were placed on farms. Analysts noted a number of factors for the slippage between eggs sets and chicks placed. Among the reasons suggested are the changed genetics of the breeder hens, the age of the hatchery supply flock, and the measurable shift away from using antibiotics in breeder flocks and in the hatchery. As the industry moves through 2018, the year-over-year comparisons should begin to move back toward a more normal scenario between weekly egg sets and weekly chicks placed.