September brought cooler temperatures around the country and kids returned to school. With it, the share of meals prepared at home increased to 78.8%, according to the September edition of the Circana primary shopper survey. This upholds the patterns observed in 2021 and 2022, in which at-home meal preparation dips in the summer and increases month-over-month throughout the fall and holiday season. 

At-home meal preparation patterns themselves continue to be affected by the sustained pressure on income. The Circana survey found that 24% of consumers to do more scratch-cooking and 42% do more with leftovers. Consumers also make changes to what they prepare, capitalizing on sales promotions and using more simple ingredients to help balance budgets as 89% of consumers continue to perceive groceries as being more expensive than last year. 

Popular savings measures include looking for sales specials more often (58%), now led by in-store signage and app searches rather than relying on paper ads. Cutting back on non-essentials (49%) and purchasing private-brands (39%) also remain popular measures. Consumers are also sticking to routine purchases a bit more with only 16% browsing the aisle for new and different products. 

Home-centric life provides many occasion-based opportunities for departments around the store. For example, 45% of Americans expect to tune into one or more NFL games from their homes this season. When doing so, 45% serve up salty snacks like chips; 35% have pizza; 28% enjoy wings; and 21% have some sweet snacks like cookies or candy. Merchandising addressing big college, national or international sporting events add to the lineup of important holidays and everyday celebrations and are key times when consumers are willing to splurge a little more. 

As consumers still shift their dollars across items, brands, sizes, stores and restaurants, Circana and 210 Analytics take a deep dive into the numbers to understand the marketplace impact on meat and poultry trends. The report is made possible by Hillphoenix. 

Inflation insights

The price per unit across all foods and beverages in the Circana-measured multi-outlet stores, including supermarkets, club, mass, supercenter, drug and military, increased by 3.1% in September 2023 (the four weeks ending 10/1/2023) versus September 2022. While more in line with pre-pandemic inflation levels, the ongoing high levels of consumer concern relate to the cumulative effect of many months of high inflation. When comparing September 2023 to September 2020, prices have increased by 25.8%. 

The average price per pound in the meat department across all cuts and kinds, both fixed and random weight, stood at $4.63 in September 2023, which was virtually unchanged from the levels seen in September 2022. Processed meat tends to have the higher prices, but its average price per pound continued to come down in September, primarily driven by bacon and sausage. 

hicken prices at retail continued to be more favorable for the consumer, at an average price per pound of $2.98. This was down 5.6% versus September of 2022. September also brought year-on-year deflation for turkey, dinner and breakfast sausage, smoked ham and processed chicken, whereas the renewed inflation in beef continued. The average retail price of beef increased by 6.7% per pound after several months of deflation. 

Meat sales 

In September 2023, flat prices in combination with fewer pound sold than last year resulted in meat dollar sales being down 1.4% year-on-year. On an annual basis, meat dollar sales were flat. The 1.8% decline in pounds seen in September was better-than-average when compared to many other commodities and departments around the store. 

Volume was trending closer to year ago levels until the fourth quarter of 2022, but recovery stalled come 2023. Pounds sales trended between 2% and 3% behind the prior year levels for the first six months of the year and moved within 2% in September despite a holiday-related boost in the first week. Because of inflationary conditions having turned into deflationary or flat prices, the dollar and volume lines are trending close together.

Assortment

Assortment, measured in the number of weekly items per store averaged 489 meat and poultry SKUs in September 2023. This was down 0.5% compared to the assortment in September 2022, but is far less than that in 2019.  

Fresh meat sales by protein 

Fresh meat pounds were very close to year-ago levels in September 2023, as were the dollars. This was driven by a strong performance in chicken and turkey. In the 52-week view, chicken was the only protein that increased pound sales. The renewed inflation in beef has resulted in renewed declines in pound sales. 

Processed meat 

September 2023 processed meat sales were about half that of fresh meat, at $2.1 billion. Dollar sales were down by 4.5% versus September 2022, while pounds decreased 4.3%. In the 52-week view, dollar sales were down for the first time in months, mostly driven by deflation in bacon. 

Grinds
 After several months of above-average performance, ground beef pounds decreased 1.9% in September, while dollar sales increased 6.3%. Additionally, ground chicken, turkey and lamb gained in pounds in September as grinds bring affordability and versatility to the meat department. 

What’s next? 

Looking toward the Thanksgiving and December holiday season, the majority of consumers expect to celebrate in similar fashion as they did last year. This includes similar expectations for the size and nature of home-cooked meals for family and friends. While unit pressure has had a profound impact on grocery sales for the past two years, holidays are an important reason to include more premium items and treats — underscoring the importance of suggestive selling in-store, online and utilizing social media.

The next performance report in the Circana, 210 Analytics and Hillphoenix series will be released mid-November 2023 to cover the October sales trends. To learn more about Circana’s meat and poultry sales and shopper measurements, please contact: FreshFoods@circana.com. Please thank the entire meat and poultry industry, from farm to store, for all they do.

Date ranges: 

Q2 2023: 13 weeks ending 7/2/2023

Q3 2023: 13 weeks ending 10/1/2023

September: 4 weeks ending 10/1/2023