US food and agricultural exports to Mexico have surged 65% over the past four years, making it the fastest growing export market for a host of American agricultural commodities and products. Mexico’s growth as a destination for US exports has been spurred by the country’s booming post-COVID economy and a rapidly growing manufacturing sector. 

The economic upswing has allowed Mexican consumers to expand their traditional diet, and US food and agricultural producers are helping meet the country’s growing demand for meat, poultry, processed foods and feed grains. In 2024, US food and ag exports to Mexico climbed to $31.4 billion, slightly below Canada, the top market at $32.4 billion. 

According to a new research brief from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange, Mexico will likely surpass Canada to claim the top spot for the first time in 2025 despite some emerging headwinds. 

“The rise of Mexico as a customer has been a huge success story for US agriculture,” said Rob Fox,  director of CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange. “But a few risk factors are developing that could slow the pace of additional growth. Mexico’s economy has been slowing, and the unusually strong peso over the last couple of years has weakened by about 15% since early 2024. Mexican consumers’ purchasing power will be more challenged in 2025.” 

Since 2020, Mexico’s share of all US agricultural exports rose from 11.2% to 16.4%. On a volume basis, corn, pork, soybeans and poultry products make up the top five US commodities purchased by Mexico, according to USDA Foreign Agricultural Service data.

At $13.9 billion, grain, feed, oilseeds and related products comprise the largest category of US ag exports to Mexico. Strong recent growth is largely attributable to rising feed demand for the country’s expanding animal protein industry and severe drought, which is limiting domestic crop yields and grazing conditions. Given the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, Mexico will almost certainly overtake China as the largest export market for US grain, feed and oilseeds in 2025. 

While Mexico’s domestic meat and poultry production continues to climb, consumption is expanding so quickly that imports from the US are increasing as well.

Mexico is also a sizeable importer of a wide array of US packaged food and related processed agricultural products.

Over the past decade, cross border trade of food and agricultural products between the US and Mexico has doubled to reach $80 billion. While free trade agreements have fallen out of favor in recent years, Fox said it’s hard to see the interconnectedness in food systems between US and Mexico as anything but a win-win for both countries. “Consumers on both sides of the border benefit from a wider array of food choices at lower prices than they would otherwise.” 

Source: CoBank