Average U.S. poultry production during the 12 months through October (latest data available) was up 2.7 percent from the prior year. The pace of growth in annual production has been slowing since June. Trends in the price of Tyson Foods stock suggest business-cycle decline (slowing growth or recession) in production will likely persist in coming months, in line with our expectations for overall U.S. food production.
Expectations for slowing growth are not limited to domestic markets. The majority of developed economies are expected to experience business-cycle decline this year, which could hinder exports. Annual U.S. chicken exports to the world peaked in April 2018 and have since declined. Exports have not recovered from a steep decline in 2015, when China closed its doors to U.S. chicken because of an outbreak of avian influenza. Annual exports in November were 27.8 percent below the record level and 2.6 percent below the April 2018 level.