July in review

• More at-home meals, bargain hunting and efforts to minimize food waste have led to record grocery store visits. Up from 200 trips in 2021, American households now purchase groceries an average of 222 times annually, according to Circana. Year-over-year, trips grew 4.7%. 
• Circana’s shopper survey found that 96% of Americans remain concerned about today’s food costs. This has led to 65% more closely watching their grocery spending, 30% stocking up on good deals and a growing popularity of private brands. Across food and beverages in Circana’s MULO+ universe, private-label sales rose 6.8% in dollars and 2.2% in units over the past year — outperforming manufacturer-branded items. 
• Consumers are also shifting purchases to everyday low-price formats. Supermarkets, known for their hi-lo pricing, generated 39.7% of all food and beverage dollars YTD, down from 44.0% in 2021. Channels that grew share include mass, club and e-commerce. Brick Meets Click/Mercatus reported that the online grocery market reached $9.8 billion in July, growing at an impressive 27.6% year-over-year, thanks to gains across delivery and pickup. 
• Retail media is booming with CPGs pouring billions into data-driven platforms like Walmart Connect, Instacart and DoorDash. High-margin ad revenue is reshaping grocery profit models. Four out of the five top-selling products during the record $24 billion Amazon Prime Day 2025 were household and grocery items, according to Numerator. This highlights the importance of omnichannel and blending convenience with personalization. 
• U.S. consumer sentiment continued to increase in July. The University of Michigan reported a significant rebound in June 2025 and further improvement to 61.7 in July. This marks the highest level since February 2025 on improved economic conditions and eased trade tensions. 
• Restaurant visits improved for several restaurant chains during the second quarter of 2025. Trips to casual and fine dining gained, but fast-food trips declined, according to Placer.ai. Higher-income households are driving the growth in restaurant spending. 

Inflation insights

In July 2025 (the four weeks ending 7/27/2025), the price per unit across all foods and beverages in the Circana MULO+ universe stood at $4.34. This was unchanged from June 2025, but up 2.8% from July 2024.

• Center-store prices averaged $4.09, an increase of 2.8% over July 2024. 
• Perishables averaged $4.28 per unit, which was an increase of 3.2% year-over-year.

Inflation across a number of proteins led to an overall increase of 5.5% for meat and poultry prices in July. Fresh meat prices increased far more than processed meat and poultry prices. Despite inflation, meat and poultry continue to enjoy demand growth.  

Circana

Inflation is no longer driven by beef alone. While beef had the highest inflation, at +9.3% year-on-year, chicken, turkey, lamb, bacon, hot dogs and smoked ham all had substantial increases in the average price per pound in July. 

Circana

Meat sales 

The four-week month of July generated nearly $8.8 billion in meat department sales. This reflects inflationary gains as well as demand-driven growth. Pound sales increased 1.6% in July 2025. The increase was fully driven by fresh meat sales that increased 2.5% in July while processed meat sales were down 0.5%.  

Circana

Meat department sales have been positive since the first quarter of 2024. Second-quarter sales gains reached their highest levels since 2020, at +7.3%. Volume gains also reached the highest level since 2020, though it’s important to remember the switch in Easter timing that moved holiday-related sales from the first to the second quarter. July pound growth was in line with the first-quarter gain of 1.5%.

Circana

All July weeks delivered growth. The holiday week, ending July 6^th, was substantially bigger than the other three July weeks. Generating $2.6 billion in sales, the week including the Independence Day holiday delivered growth in dollars and pounds. The second July week had the strongest pound sales, up 2.2%. 

Fresh meat sales by protein 

Beef generated more than half of all fresh meat sales in July with dollars up by double digits. This includes robust price increases but also 3.6% growth in volume sales. Chicken and lamb also had a strong July. 

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Processed meat 

Processed meat sales were a mix in July. Packaged lunchmeat and bacon pulled down the total category performance, whereas sausage, hot dogs and processed chicken grew. Processed meat and poultry has also seen a lot of growth in the frozen food department.

Processed meat sales by protein July 2025

Grinds
 Ground beef sales have been extremely strong all year, but July Fourth celebrations no doubt added to this month’s $1.4 billion in sales. Dollar sales for ground beef rose by double digits and pound sales increased 2.3%. Turkey was the only ground meat that did not have a good July, whereas ground chicken saw substantial growth in dollars and pounds. 

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What’s next?

• Inflation, tariffs and other macro environment dynamics have reshaped grocery-shopping habits and consumer behavior in recent years. Savings ratings have fallen below COVID averages in recent quarters, and the Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady. 
• Holidays, celebrations and entertaining remain the most important reasons for consumers to splurge a little, evidenced in growth during big national holidays, including July Fourth. Party platters are hot this summer and retailers are increasingly focused on easy, low-cost entertaining. 
• Getting creative around more than the primary and secondary holidays, some brands have tapped into the cultural moment of “Summerween” and Gen Z and Millennials can’t get enough of the creative campaigns and shareable experiences. 
• Thinking ahead to Labor Day, “getting together with friends or family” is easily the most popular plan, followed by barbecue or having another type of special meal/celebration.