Inflation insights

Retail total food and beverage price growth eased to 1.6% in December 2025 (the four weeks ending 12/28/2025), driven by declining produce, dairy and egg prices. The average price per unit in the Circana MULO+ universe was $4.36, up 1.6% year-over-year. Beneath the slowing average, gradual price increases persist across packaged center-store items.

• Center-store prices averaged $3.97, an increase of 3.5% year-over-year.
• Perishable prices averaged $4.51 per unit, up a mere 0.2% versus December 2024.

Prices continued to increase in the meat department. Fresh meat prices grew 7.1% in December compared with 2.1% for processed meat. These increases are higher than the annual rate of inflation. 

Circana, Integrated Fresh, Total US, MULO+

Fresh meat inflation was predominantly driven by beef, turkey and lamb. The average price per pound for lamb rose above the $9 mark, whereas beef averaged $7.67 across all cuts. On the processed meat side, inflation was driven by frankfurters and dinner sausage.

Circana, Integrated Fresh, Total US, MULO+

Meat Sales 

December marked yet another month of dollar, unit and pound growth for the meat department. Meat pound growth did slow to just +0.1% as processed meat had a down month. In the total calendar year, the meat department reached $111.9 billion in sales, which was up 6.8% in dollars and 2.0% in pounds — making meat the biggest and fastest-growing of all perimeter departments in 2025. 

Circana, Integrated Fresh, Total US, MULO+

Meat department sales have been positive since the first quarter of 2023, with increases ranging from 0.3% to 7.3%. In all cases, dollar gains were a combination of inflation and demand growth. The second quarter of 2025 benefitted from the late Easter timing, while December sales do not include the final three days of the year, pushing some of the New Year’s meal dollars into the January report.

Circana, Integrated Fresh, Total US, MULO+

The meat department had subdued everyday demand the first two weeks of December, with pounds down slightly compared to year-ago levels. The third week mirrors the total food and beverage performance. With Christmas shifting to a Thursday, fewer people started the holiday stock up in the third week of the month, with more of the trips, dollars and pounds falling in the final week of December.  

Assortment

After several years of the meat department assortment shrinking, 2025 brought renewed variety. Across store formats, cuts and types of meat and poultry, stores carried an average of 453 items in 2025, up 1% over 2024. December reflected a larger holiday assortment. 

Fresh meat sales by protein 

All fresh meat categories grew dollar sales year-over-year in December. Pound performances were more mixed. Lamb, that started out the year strongly, has struggled in the second half of the year and pounds fell 10.8% in December. Beef dollars, units and pounds continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace than in the full-year view. 

Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO+

Turkey sales deep dive

The late timing of Thanksgiving, combined with consumers’ focus on price and promotions, concentrated most turkey sales into the final two weeks of December. Like total meat, turkey sales were down during the third week of December due to the Thursday timing, but it remained the biggest volume weeks. The holiday week itself (ending 12/28) grew substantially.

Unlike November when whole bird turkey dominated sales, ground turkey sales topped in December. December sales were down year-on-year for whole turkey and turkey breast, but turkey wings and legs enjoyed dollar gains.

Processed meat 

Patterns were mixed for processed meat. Sausage and processed chicken had a good month, while bacon, packaged lunchmeat, smoked ham and hot dogs fell behind year-ago levels. These patterns are similar in the full-year view.  

Circana, Integrated Fresh, Total US, MULO+

Smoked ham sales deep dive

Smoked ham sales peaked the week of the holiday. This was also the only one of the four December week to drive growth compared to December 2024. Volume was down by double digits during the first, second and third weeks of December.  

Spiral-cut ham generated the largest share of sales, at $220 million, which was a 1.2% increase over year-ago levels. Boneless and bone-in hams did not perform as well as they did in December 2024. 

Grinds 

Though ground beef sales tend to typically be lower in holiday months, December generated $1.3 billion in sales, up 16.4% compared with December 2024. Ground turkey was the second-largest grind, but the only one down in volume in December and the full calendar year. 

Circana, Integrated Fresh, Total US, MULO+

What’s next?

A review of leading 2026 trend forecasts reveals broad consensus across several themes:

• Value, health and demographic shifts will remain the primary undercurrents shaping retail purchases. Value will become increasingly personalized through loyalty programs and AI-enabled tools.
• Fueled by MAHA, food as medicine is now mainstream, with consumers gravitating toward nutrient-dense options, animal-based proteins and fats, minimally processed foods and products positioned to support holistic and functional wellbeing. Foods and ingredients aimed at preventing or managing chronic disease are gaining traction and these behaviors are likely to be reinforced following the release of the new food pyramid in early January.
• GLP-1 medications will have a growing impact on the food landscape, likely accelerating menu and retail innovation focused on smaller portions, higher nutrient density and protein-forward solutions.
• Protein will remain a top dietary priority, with continued strength for animal-based proteins alongside rapid expansion of protein-fortified products across food and beverage categories. Demand is increasingly driven by benefits beyond sports performance, including immunity, cognition and everyday energy.
• Fiber is emerging as a second nutrient to watch in 2026, as consumers increasingly associate it with gut health, digestion and satiety.
• AI will continue to expand as a source of trial, information, meal planning and shopping support, such as Walmart, Target and Instacart partnering with ChatGPT to enable in-platform purchases.
• Influenced by social media, texture and multi-sensory experiences will play an increasingly important role in food and beverages. This includes dynamic use of color, texture, aroma and appearance, as well as preparation methods that enhance texture, with air fryers taking a leading role.
• Leveraging the strong link between taste, smell and memory, nostalgia will continue to influence both retail and foodservice, as brands tap into emotional connections to drive sales during economically challenging times. Nostalgia resonates particularly strongly with Gen Z.

Maintaining clarity around these diverging behavioral paths will be critical for anticipating long-term demand patterns. 

 Date ranges: 

2025: 52 weeks ending 12/28/2025       

Q4 2025: 13 weeks ending 12/28/2025

December 2025: 4 weeks ending 12/28/2025