Inflation insights

Retail food and beverage price growth remained mild at 1.5% year-over-year in March 2026 (four weeks ending 3/29/2026). However, this overall increase masks a widening divergence: center-store items continue to see meaningful inflation, while perishable departments are experiencing slight deflation.

• Center-store prices averaged $4.11 per unit, up 3.7% year-over-year. 
• Perishable prices averaged $4.33 per unit, down 0.5% versus March 2025.

Prices continued to increase in the meat department, though processed meat prices fell 1.8%, influenced by smoked ham prices and the earlier Easter timing. Fresh meat prices grew 5.1% in March.  

Circana, Integrated Fresh, Total US, MULO+

Fresh meat inflation was predominantly driven by turkey, exotic (including bison) and lamb, followed by beef. The average price per pound for lamb rose to nearly $9.21, whereas beef averaged $7.14 across all cuts. On the processed meat side, deflation was driven by a 29.2% decrease in smoked ham prices with earlier Easter-related promotions.

Circana, Integrated Fresh, Total US, MULO+

Meat sales 

Meat had a strong month, with growth in dollars, units and pounds. Sales reached $8.5 billion, up 5.0% year-over-year. Both fresh and processed meat delivered gains. While dollar growth slowed compared with the full-year pace, this reflects moderating inflation rather than a lack of demand, especially in fresh meat.

Circana, Integrated Fresh, Total US, MULO+

Meat department sales have been positive since the fourth quarter of 2023, with dollar gains reflecting a combination of inflation and demand growth. March dollar gains were in line with recent months, with slightly better-than-average pound performance as the rate of inflation is slowing somewhat.

First-quarter pound growth, at +1.1%, was consistent with the prior two quarters. However, the shift in Easter timing, from the first quarter in 2024 to late April in 2025, makes first- and second-quarter comparisons more difficult.

Circana, Integrated Fresh, Total US, MULO+

March delivered dollar and pound growth in three of the four weeks. Beef bucked the trend once again, posting dollar and pound growth in all four weeks, while chicken fell short in two of the four weeks.

 Fresh meat sales by protein 

After being the only fresh commodity to post pound growth in February, beef once again led the charge in March. While chicken saw a modest 0.4% increase in pound sales, beef grew 2.7%, offsetting declines in pork, turkey, lamb, exotic and veal. Beef dollar sales grew 8% in March. 

Circana, Integrated Fresh, Total US, MULO+

Processed meat 

The earlier Easter helped boost smoked ham sales in March, with dollars up 50% year over year and pounds more than doubling. This will likely normalize when compared against Easter 2025, which fell on April 20. Other processed meats had a more mixed month: bacon and dinner sausage volumes dipped slightly below year-ago levels, while packaged lunchmeat continued to struggle. In contrast, breakfast sausage sales accelerated, with volume up 5.6% year over year.

Circana, Integrated Fresh, Total US, MULO+

Grinds
 Ground beef sales reached $1.4 billion in March. This was up 11.0% in dollars and 1.6% in pounds. Ground chicken is a fast up-and-comer, while turkey is losing ground with rising prices. Ground pork is another pocket of growth for the meat department.  

Circana, Integrated Fresh, Total US, MULO+

What’s next?

• The FDA has approved a once-daily GLP-1 pill, priced at as low as $25 per month for insured patients and $149–$349 for those paying out of pocket, according to CNBC. GLP-1 medications are influencing categories across the store. While there are no signs of shying away from any categories, GLP-1 consumers tend to be focused on nutrient density, portion control and protein. 
• Private label sales reached $330 billion, capturing a 24% unit share and 23% dollar share of the total market, according to Circana. Club channels, the primary growth engine, account for nearly half of private label’s momentum. 
• Lower-income consumers continue to optimize spending through mix shifts toward mainstream brands, private label, and smaller pack sizes. Over the past six months, price per unit for lower-income households rose 1.1% versus 1.8% for higher-income consumers, while unit demand increased 1.9%, according to Circana. 
• Expanded SNAP work eligibility requirements took effect nationally on February 1, with full enforcement beginning March 1. State-level restrictions on SNAP-eligible items vary by state but include items such as soft drinks, candy and energy drinks, and are rolling out in phases. Colorado, Florida, and Texas begin implementation in April.

 Date ranges: 

2025: 52 weeks ending 12/28/2025       

Q1 2026: 13 weeks ending 03/29/2026 

March 2026: 4 weeks ending 03/29/2026