USDA outlook

Fourth-quarter pork production is up 25 million pounds to 7.09 billion pounds, 2.4% higher than in the same period a year ago, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Hog prices are expected to average $54 per cwt. for the quarter, down 15% compared with the fourth quarter of 2022. USDA foresees soft consumer demand for pork persisting and keeping hog price increases in check. October pork exports increased 5.7% year over year, with strong shipments to Mexico and other Western Hemisphere markets. USDA forecasts U.S. pork exports for 2024 at about 6.9 billion pounds, up slightly (1.5%) from the 2023 export forecast.

Pork production

U.S. pork production and supply trends from the Pork Checkoff:

• Hog slaughter for September through November 2023 was 1.7% higher than the same period in 2022.
• Pork trim prices are under pressure but are finding premiums for boxing, freezing and transportation.
• The loin market remains strong, fueled by robust retail/export demand.
• Exports to Mexico continue to power ham values.

Pork at retail

At retail, November saw year-on-year deflation for processed pork products, including bacon, packaged lunchmeat, dinner sausage, breakfast sausage and smoked ham, according to Circana retail market analysis. The per-pound price for fresh pork in November 2023 was $3.21, up 2.3% from year-ago levels. For the 52-week period ending Nov. 26, 2023, fresh pork prices averaged $3.14, down -1.8% from year-ago levels.

Fresh pork sales for November 2023 were $493 million, down -1.9% in dollar sales from a year ago and down -4.1% in pounds sold for that time period, according to Circana. For the latest 52 weeks ending Nov. 26, 2023, fresh pork sales totaled $6.9 billion, down -5.4% for dollar sales versus a year ago and down -3.6% for pounds sold.

Ground pork saw sales of $18 million in November 2023, with dollar sales up a hair at 0.1% while pounds sold slid -1.2% from year-ago levels. For the 52-week period ending Nov. 26, 2023, sales of ground pork were $207 million, with dollar sales rising 2.1% and pounds sold up 2% versus 2022.