In May 2025, consumer sentiment was unchanged from April’s low 52.5 index, according to the University of Michigan. This ended four consecutive months of rapid declines. The university found an improvement in the expected business conditions, but this was offset by declines in current personal finances stemming from stagnating incomes throughout May. Overall, consumers remained concerned in their future outlook. 

• The flurry of grocery trips resulted in new records. Year-to-date, consumers have shopped for groceries an average of 62 times per household, up 4.3% from the same weeks in 2024, according to Circana. 
• Consumers continued to purchase fewer items per trip, down 2.3%, per Circana. In some categories, like meat, volume rose faster than units, signaling a switch to larger pack sizes. This is mostly driven by higher-income households. In other cases, consumers balanced their grocery spending by skipping non-essentials, buying smaller pack sizes and purchasing what’s on sale.
• Brick Meets Click expects online grocery sales to maintain an annual growth rate of 8.9% over the next five years, which is more than five times its in-store counterpart’s projected 1.7%. The firm anticipates that online sales will make up 17% of all grocery sales by 2029.
• The Circana survey of primary grocery shoppers found that 77% of all meal occasions were sourced from home. Yet, 79% of consumers had ordered restaurant food in the past month at least once, ranging from 83% of Millennials to just 53% of those ages 79+. 
• Despite consumer cost-consciousness in 2025, third-party delivery giants Uber, DoorDash and Instacart defied expectations with double-digit order growth. This results in continued blending of retail and restaurant foodservice. 
• Total retail food and beverage sales for the week leading up to Mother’s Day reached $19 million, up 3.1% and unit sales edged up 0.3%. Memorial Day, celebrated on Monday May 26^th, generated slight unit growth of 0.3% year-over-year. 

Inflation insights

In May 2025 (the five weeks ending 6/1/2025), the price per unit across all foods and beverages in the Circana MULO+ universe stood at $4.38. This reflects an increase of 2.7% over May 2024. Center-store prices averaged $4.08, an increase of 2.4% over May 2024. Fresh food prices averaged $4.29, which was an increase of 3.8% year-over-year. Eggs continued to have a substantial impact on the overall fresh perimeter and total store price points. On a per unit basis, eggs averaged $6.33, which was down from $7.12 in April, but reflects an increase of 46.7% versus May 2024. 

Mother’s Day and Memorial Day promotions did not have the same impact on meat prices as the deep Easter discount did in April. Total meat prices across fixed and random weight packages reached $4.89 in May, which was up 4.0% from May 2024. The increase in the average price per pound was primarily driven by fresh meat in May, which experienced a 5.3% uptick.  

The average price per pound at the category level was a mix of ups and downs in comparison to May 2024. Pork, exotic meat/poultry (which includes bison and quail) and smoked ham experienced deflation. In contrast, beef and chicken prices continued to rise.  

Meat sales 

The five-week month of May generated nearly $11 billion in meat department sales. While unit sales were flat for total food and beverages, the meat department continued to grow. Boosted by inflation, dollar sales increased 6.1% overall and 8.6% for fresh meat. Processed meat gained slightly in dollars, but lost a little ground in pounds.

 Meat department sales have been positive since the first quarter of 2024.

All five May weeks generated growth in comparison to the same week in 2024. The gains were highest for the week leading up to Mother’s Day, which was traditionally the biggest restaurant occasion of the year pre-pandemic. Pound sales increased 3.5% during Mother’s Day, which may be a good sign for Father’s Day sales in June. Memorial Day sales are split between the fourth and fifth week of May — both of which generated sales increases in dollars and pounds.

Assortment

The average number of items per week, per store came down from last month when retailers geared up for Easter. At an average of 453 SKUs in May 2025, assortment was down a bit from May 2024.

Fresh meat sales by protein 

Beef continued to astound in May. Despite the 6.8% increase in the average price per pound across beef cuts, pound sales increased 4.7% in the five May weeks when compared to 2024. The growth in beef pounds exceeded that of chicken and pork. Only lamb had a higher growth rate, at +15.5%, though off a much smaller base. 

Processed meat 

Processed meat sales were a mix in May. Packaged lunchmeat and frankfurters pulled down the total category performance, whereas bacon, dinner/breakfast sausage, smoked ham and processed chicken grew.

Grinds
Ground beef generated $1.7 billion out of the total $4.3 billion across all beef cuts in May. Dollar sales for ground beef rose by double digits and pound sales increased 4.8%. Ground chicken and lamb also had very strong months. 

What’s next?

• America’s love for protein is evidenced by continued growth in the meat, dairy and seafood departments. Meat is the biggest of the three and leads in year-over-year growth. 
• The pause on several tariffs helped ease consumers’ concern over prices and availability of goods. Yet, consumers continue to spend cautiously. According to Circana, 69% of households expect tariffs to increase prices, while 28% expect little to no impact. The remaining 3% believe prices will decline.    
• Americans expect to fly less but take more road trips this summer. This offers opportunity in road-trip and on-the-go foods. As is, Technomic reports that the percentage of consumers who consume meals in their cars has risen eight points since 2019 for limited-service breakfast items, five points for lunch and four points for snacks.