June review

• After plateauing in May, consumer sentiment improved in June 2025, according to the University of Michigan. The index increased to 60.7 points from 52.2 points in May. The improvement was seen across numerous facets of the economy, with expectations for personal finances and business conditions climbing about 20% or more. Despite June’s gains, sentiment remains about 18% below December 2024. 
• Several publicly traded retail and foodservice companies added language on tariffs in the risk sections of their annual and quarterly reporting. Consumer sentiment relative to tariffs held steady in May after support fell for several months over concerns regarding their potential impact on prices, product availability and employment. 
• The Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% year-over-year in May, according to federal data, mostly unchanged from April. Consumer food costs increased 2.9%, including 3.8% for restaurants. Already starting a higher price point, the above-average increases for foodservice means a continued retail-centric meal landscape for most consumers. 
• Combined with the nation’s focus on protein, this has led to a very strong first half of 2025 for the meat department. Led by beef and chicken, most proteins have gained during the first six months of the year. In the weeks through June 29^th, the meat department generated upwards of $54 billion, up 7.1% in dollars and 2.8% in pounds. 
• This increase is supported by 98.2% of households purchasing meat/poultry at least once. The average spend per household is up 6.9%, reaching $426 during the first half of the year. Units per trips are down 1.5% as consumers are mixing in larger pack sizes to save over time. They are also shopping for meat/poultry more frequently. The average household has already purchased meat 26 times, up 5.3% versus the first half of 2024. 

 Inflation insights

In June 2025 (the four weeks ending 6/29/2025), the price per unit across all foods and beverages in the Circana MULO+ universe stood at $4.34. This reflects an increase of 2.6% over June 2024. 

• Center-store prices averaged $4.09, an increase of 2.5% over June 2024. 
• Fresh food prices averaged $4.27, which was an increase of 3.4% year-over-year. Eggs continued to have a substantial impact on the overall fresh perimeter and total store price points. On a per unit basis, eggs averaged $5.54, which was down from $6.33 in May, but reflects an increase of 29.5% versus June 2024. 

Inflation across a number of proteins led to an overall increase of 4.0% for meat and poultry prices in June. Fresh meat prices increased far more than processed meat and poultry prices. Despite inflation, consumers have purchased far more meat and poultry. Today’s meat department volume level is only surpassed by the 2020 pandemic year volume.   

Inflation is no longer driven by beef alone. While lamb and beef price increases led in June 2025, chicken and turkey prices also rose. On the processed meat side, several proteins gained, led by frankfurters and processed chicken.  

Meat sales 

The four-week month of June generated nearly $8.6 billion in meat department sales. This reflects the inflation mentioned above on top of demand-driven growth. Pound sales increased 1.7% in June 2025. The increase was fully driven by fresh meat sales that increased 3.0% in June while processed meat sales were down a bit.  

Meat department sales have been positive since the first quarter of 2024.Second-quarter sales gains reached their highest levels since 2020, at +7.3%. Volume gains also reached the highest level since 2020, though it’s important to remember the switch in Easter timing that moved holiday-related sales from the first to the second quarter.

Growth would have likely been even stronger if it hadn’t been for the final week of June, ending 6/29. This is the week leading up to Independence Day. With the holiday falling on a Friday this year, it is likely that more of the sales were pushed into the first week of July with the Circana week endings falling on Sundays. This will likely bode well for the July report.

Assortment

After a slight reduction in assortment in the first quarter of 2025, assortment is holding stable at around 456 the past few months.

Fresh meat sales by protein 

Beef generated more than half of all fresh meat sales with dollars up by double digits. This includes robust price increases but also 3.5% growth in volume sales. Pork and lamb also had a strong June.

Processed meat 

Processed meat sales were a mix in June. Packaged lunchmeat, smoked ham and frankfurters pulled down the total category performance, whereas bacon, breakfast sausage and processed chicken grew. Processed meat and poultry has also seen a lot of growth in the frozen food department.

Grinds
 Ground beef generated $1.4 billion out of the total $ billion across all beef cuts in June. Dollar sales for ground beef rose by double digits and pound sales increased 4.6%. Turkey was the only ground meat that did not have a good June. 

What’s next?

• According to the Circana survey of primary grocery shoppers, consumers are expecting summer travel to be fairly similar to last year's. If consumers choose to travel less (about one in 10) they cite travel costs and financial pressure in general as the main reasons. 
• Consumers also expect summer cooking patterns to be similar to last year’s, hosting family and friends and doing cookouts several times during the 13 weeks between Memorial and Labor Day. One-third say new foods and recipes may prompt additional grilling occasions. 
• Seven in 10 households who grill at least once during the summer tend to prepare their own meat/seafood items, whereas 17% buy grill-ready items. Consumers are slightly more likely to purchase pre-made sides, at 25%. 
• These are big opportunities for the meat department, especially with focused grilling ads and merchandising that integrate other departments such as bakery and produce.