Fed cattle slaughter typically peaks in June, driven by strong demand from retail and foodservice channels. This year, however, is anything but typical. Fed cattle slaughter last week was estimated at 461,000 head, 9% lower than a year ago, and this week it is expected to be only marginally better. For the four weeks of June 2025, our estimate is that fed cattle slaughter will total around 1.86 million head, down 7% from last year.

Cow and bull slaughter has been limited for some time, reflecting a smaller cow herd and producers' efforts to retain as many productive animals as possible. During the four weeks of June 2025, we estimate cow and bull slaughter totaled 404,000 head, 10% lower than a year ago and an astounding 37% lower than two years ago.

Rising fed cattle weights helped offset some of the beef production shortfall earlier in the spring. In June, fed cattle weights were likely 2% to 2.5% higher than last year, a significant increase, but still insufficient to fully compensate for the reduction in slaughter. It is also important to note that as feedlots have opted to feed cattle longer, the result has been more out-of-condition and poor-yielding animals. According to limited USDA data, the share of yield grade 4 and 5 cattle in April was over 24%. Last year, it was 20.8%, and pre-COVID, it averaged around 10% for this time of year.

A sharp decline in fed cattle slaughter, double-digit reductions in cow slaughter, and a greater share of poor-yielding cattle all imply a significant reduction in lean beef supplies. Traditionally, lean cuts from the chuck or round are less expensive than tender cuts from the loin or rib, especially in the summer, when consumers shift away from roasts and stews toward grilling items like steaks and ground beef. But record prices for steak cuts and limited lean beef availability have caused wholesale prices for chucks, rounds and ground beef to skyrocket. Heading into the July Fourth holiday weekend, the benchmark 81CL coarse ground beef was quoted near $400/cwt, a 25% increase from a year ago. Prices for chuck and round primals are also up around 24% year-over-year. Retail beef prices in May 2025 were up 8.6% from last year, and given current wholesale trends, even higher retail prices are expected for the rest of the summer.