Meat delivers continued growth, bucking total store trends
Despite inflation, meat and poultry experience demand growth.
Ground beef
Photo courtesy of Alexa/Pixabay
August in review
- Consumer prices rose 2.9% in August, the largest jump since January, while jobless claims hit a four-year high, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- The University of Michigan reported a decline in U.S. consumer sentiment in August from 61.7 in July to 58.2 in August. This marks the first decline in four months, driven by heightened concern about inflation.
- August’s total retail food and beverage sales remained on the flat-to-down unit trajectory seen throughout the past several months. In Circana’s MULO+ universe, dollar sales increased 2.7% in August, but units dropped 0.4% compared with August 2024.
- Value-seeking is driving channel shifting, a focus on essentials and promotional responsiveness. Yet, consumers continue to show willingness to trade up for convenience, quality and wellness benefits.
- Supermarkets, known for their hi-lo pricing, generated 42.2% of all food and beverage unit sales in August, down from 47.3% in 2021. Channels that grew share include mass, club and e-commerce.
- According to Brick Meets Click, online grocery shopping reached a new milestone of $10 billion in July, with approximately 61% of U.S. households (about 81 million people) making purchases online. Delivery sales rose 36% to $4.3 billion, while pickup sales increased 24% year-on-year to $4 billion. Both segments benefited from repeat customers, who spent 50% more per order than first-timers.
- Grocery visits increased 2.6% year-over-year, averaging 17.1 per household in the past four weeks. To balance spending, consumers purchased fewer units per trip (-1.6%) for an average of 8.8 items.
- Non-food categories experienced a 0.7% decline in unit sales, just like center-store grocery. Perishables eked out a 0.1% increase in units, combined with a 3.6% increase in dollar sales.
- After weeks of stability and improvement for some channels, restaurant traffic declined 1% in August, according to Circana. This aligns with the declines seen in retail sales and consumer sentiment. Premium dining gained momentum, with an increase in restaurant visits for fine dining and casual restaurants. Deal-driven traffic grew, while non-deal trips fell. Pickup and delivery are quietly driving sales and traffic for a lot of brands.
Inflation insights
In August 2025 (the five weeks ending 8/31/2025), the price per unit across all foods and beverages in the Circana MULO+ universe stood at $4.37, reflecting a renewed upswing in inflation.
- The average price per unit for total food and beverages increased 3.1%, primarily driven by commodity volatility impacting categories both directly and indirectly. Incremental cost pressures may emerge, influenced by product reformulation initiatives, indirect tariff effects and market uncertainty.
- Center-store prices averaged $4.12, an increase of $0.03 over July and 3.3% year-on-year.
- Perishables rose to $4.31 per unit, which was an increase of 3.4% over August 2024.
Inflation across a number of proteins led to an overall increase of 5.7% for meat and poultry prices in August. Fresh meat prices increased far more than processed meat and poultry prices. Despite inflation, meat and poultry continued to enjoy demand growth.
Circana MULO+Inflation is no longer driven by beef alone. Lamb and beef had the highest levels of inflation, but prices also increased substantially for turkey, chicken, hot dogs and other proteins.
Circana MULO+Meat sales
The five-week month of August generated nearly $11 billion in meat department sales. This reflects inflationary gains as well as demand-driven growth. Pound sales increased 0.4% in August 2025. This increase was fully driven by fresh meat sales that increased 1.1% in August while processed meat sales were down 1.4%.
Circana MULO+Meat department sales have been positive since the first quarter of 2024, with increases ranging from 2.0% to 7.3%. In all cases, dollar gains were a combination of inflation and demand growth. While the second quarter of 2025 benefitted from the late Easter timing, August pound sales continued to grow contrary to trends in many other departments across the store.
Circana MULO+All August weeks delivered dollar growth, whereas pound sales were a mix. The first and last week of August experienced mild pound decreases that were offset by substantial growth during the week ending August 17th. While August’s pound growth of 0.4% is among the weaker results of the past 18 months, it still exceeds the performances of many other departments.
Assortment
After a slight reduction in assortment in the first quarter of 2025, assortment is holding stable at around 454 items per store the past few months.
Fresh meat sales by protein
Beef generated more than half of all fresh meat sales in August with dollars up by double digits. This includes robust price increases but also 0.8% growth in volume sales. Chicken and pork also grew pound sales, whereas the steep increase in lamb prices caused some pound softness in August.
Circana MULO+Processed meat
Processed meat sales were a mix in August. Packaged lunchmeat and bacon pulled down the total category performance, whereas dinner sausage, breakfast sausage and processed chicken sales grew year-on-year. Processed meat and poultry is also enjoying substantial growth in the frozen food department.
Circana MULO+Grinds
Ground beef sales have been extremely strong all year and August was no exception. The five-week period generated $1.7 billion in sales, up 13% year-on-year. Ground chicken, pork and lamb also had a strong August.
Circana MULO+Deep-dive into ground beef
Despite ground beef’s strong performance over the past few years, whole muscle cuts are holding their own. Ground beef’s share of total beef dollars and pounds has increased slightly, but whole muscle cuts continue to generate 61% of total beef dollar sales.
Circana MULO+What’s next?
- Strength in e-commerce and premium brands reflects consumers’ ongoing willingness to invest in convenience and quality as they reassess spending priorities. Circana found that CPG products marketed as sustainable, including environmentally, socially or economically sustainable, are growing at a healthy pace. In fact, sustainably-positioned products have grown at double the rate of conventional options since 2019, boasting a CAGR of 12.4%. They accounted for 23.8% of the market in 2024.
- U.S. private labels hold a growing 22% share of the CPG market, far lower than the 39% share seen in Europe, according to Circana. Premium and organic private-label lines are increasingly meeting consumer demand for eco-friendly options but also enhance retailer differentiation and loyalty.
- Approximately 42.5 million people participate in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) program today. SNAP is a key driver of sales across the CPG industry with benefits and participation in the program shifting with the passage of the Big Beautiful Bill Act. According to Circana, dollar stores currently capture 29.9% of sales from SNAP households, followed by mass, at 22.6%. During the first half of the year, SNAP households purchased groceries online more often.
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