Fed cattle weights are on track to rise more than 2% this year, following a 2.5% increase last year. There has not been an instance in the past 60-plus years when fed cattle weights increased by more than 2% in two consecutive years. In early September 2025, the average dressed weight was 958 pounds, just 2 pounds shy of the record set a year ago. The supply of cattle with 150-plus days on feed as of Sept. 1 was 19% higher than a year ago. The seasonal rise in weights, combined with the larger share of long-fed cattle, almost guarantees a new record this year. Through early September, the average steer weight was 945 pounds, 24 pounds (+2.6%) heavier than a year ago and 47 pounds (+5.2%) heavier than two years ago.

Record weights are likely to produce a record amount of fat trim per head. Fat trim accounts for roughly 10% of beef harvested from a steer carcass, and when weights run this heavy, the percentage increases. A USDA report noted that in July 2025 about 21% of fed steers and heifers graded yield grade 4 or 5. The higher the yield grade, the more fat is harvested. Last November, more than 25% of graded carcasses were YG4 and YG5. This year could be even higher.

Because fat trim is far less valuable than lean, a rising fat percentage pressures the cutout value. Last year, the price of 50CL boneless beef was around $180/cwt in mid-August but by mid-October had collapsed below $60/cwt, a 68% decline. This year, 50CL prices were mostly steady through the first five months, then more than doubled in late June and July. Packers reducing slaughter and the seasonal summer dip in cattle weights contributed, but in our view the biggest driver was the surge in lean beef imports in March through May, which boosted demand for fat trim.

Now, with imports slowing, grilling season behind us, and carcass weights climbing, the fat trim market could again come under pressure, dragging down the overall cutout in the process.