Prices booming, production declining
Annual Beef Production is down 2.2 percent from one year ago. Annual Production (12MMA) has been in decline since July 2013 and is at its lowest level in nearly four years. The course of the current data trend decline is running at a typical pace for the industry, and the rates of change suggest further decline in coming months. Overall food production has been gaining this summer, but the rise is expected to peter out by the end of the third quarter.
The recent ban on many food imports by Russia is unlikely to have much effect on U.S. production going forward since U.S. beef imports were already banned, though some of the effect of last year’s ban is still showing up in the data trend. Brazilian beef exports to Russia have more than doubled over the past year to replace American product.
Live Cattle Cash Prices have been booming this year, up 36.2 percent year-over-year as of the end of July. Dry conditions in recent years have led to culling of herds, which is now restricting supply and driving up prices.