COVID-19 continues to disrupt the entire foodservice industry and will only continue to have significant consequences. Using our current understanding of the crisis, we modeled out numerous scenarios to understand the scope of its impact. Presently, the expected foodservice impact ranges from a decline of 11% to 27% in year-over-year growth for 2020. But while most of the changes seem grim, there are also signs of hope, specifically from the operators who are adapting their service model in response to the new environment.
It’s no surprise that travel and leisure will take the biggest hit. The business and industry sector is being severely impacted by office closures and plant shutdowns, and educational losses will be steep but tempered slightly by schools continuing to serve impoverished members of the community. Full-service restaurants are impacted by state and local mandates to close dining areas. All segments are impacted by the increasing number of municipalities and states enacting shelter-in-place orders. At face value, one would assume that hospital foodservice would benefit from the outbreak, however, patient quarantines limit guest visitation.
Operators pivoting to off-premise models and helping each other with crowdfunding campaigns and lobbying for aid packages have showcased the resilience of the industry. For those who are operating, a pivot to meet the needs of underserved communities or the underserviced needs of consumers who seek connections at a distance has proven to be the best path forward.
Click here for more analysis from Joseph Pawlak, Technomic Managing Principal.