Consumer confidence is dipping, leading them to be more strategic about where their dollars go. Consumers are backing away from restaurant spending, shifting their dollars to more affordable options. Eighty-six percent of eating occasions are sourced from retail, further reinforcing this trend. Eighty-six percent of meals are sourced from home.

Return-to-office mandates are impacting the meal occasion, bringing more attention to lunchtime. Rodriguez sees strong potential for protein's role in the lunch occasion. Rodriguez noted that 41% of adults want more protein in their diet, helping the meat case to drive traffic and be a consumer destination. Proteins like beef and chicken reign supreme, but cost is coming into play.

Pocketbook pressure is leading many consumers away from sweets and snacks, pushing their dollars toward nutrient-dense foods like meat. Despite price increases, consumers are spending a lot of money in food and beverage; the total category spend for the last year reached $1.69 trillion. 

What's hot?

Despite pocketbook pressure and concerns, often higher-priced convenience-focused and value-added proteins are on the rise. Circana data shows over 50% of dinner occasions require less than 15 minutes of preparation, bringing more consumers to the value-added meat category. Grinds grew $2 billion over the last year; this momentum reflects strong consumer demand for cost-effective, easy-to-prepare meats.

More popular product and cuts in the meat department include beef sirloin, chicken thighs, beef ribeye, dinner sausage and pork ribs. Dried meat snacks remain king, by a wide margin.

Meat snacks have been dominating the marketplace, viewed by consumers as a nutrient-dense, convenient way to stay fueled throughout the day. This category is fueling overall department momentum, reigning as the top-growing snack food in the United States.

Case-ready meats continue to gain favorability in the marketplace, especially among younger consumers. In fact, 87% of consumers view case-ready cuts as equal to or better than meat cut and packaged in the store.

""Protein is where it's at. From a health and wellness perspective, this is where consumers are really spending their time. For satiety, for understanding muscle mass and bone density, meat and protein play a massive role in how consumers are thinking about their future health and wellness." Both fresh and frozen meat are meeting the needs of consumers, with both seeing sales increases of 9% and 1.3%, respectively, while meat alternatives have seen sales declines of 13.8% over the last year.

What's not?

The meat alternatives category is facing strong headwinds, especially when compared to the strong sales in the fresh and frozen meat categories. Rodriguez noted that during the pandemic, alternative-proteins gained a lot of attention, but the category was not able to maintain that initial momentum. Meat alternatives have faced four years of sales declines starting in 2021. These alternatives have lost dollar share of the meat department each year since 2020, driven by consumer concerns over ingredients and high costs.

Deli is also struggling, driven by declines in deli-service lunchmeat. The service counter is facing these declines largely to pandemic-era labor shortages, as well as generational shopping differences. "We noticed that younger consumers don't necessarily care to interact with people in the store," Rodriguez said. These shoppers tend to opt for grab-and-go or presliced food products.

Deli category declines have been further exacerbated by recall concerns in 2024, particularly the widely publicized Boar's Head recall; since then, the category has not been able to fully recover.

Fowl and exotic meats have lost momentum over the last year, but Rodriguez predicts future popularity for these proteins, driven by interest in lean meats. Rodriguez noted that some of these cuts are coming from outside of the United States, which may not be as readily accessible due to trade and tariff complications. 

While sustainability has been a hot topic in the meat industry in recent years, sustainability concerns are taking a bit of a backseat. While 79% of adults express some level of concern about the environment, cost concerns are taking priority in the marketplace right now, while some consumers just aren't considering sustainability. Overall concern for the environment has declined since last year. While sustainability still matters to many consumers, particularly Gen Z and millennials, fewer shoppers believe food and beverage products can make a difference in helping to protect the environment. Rather, more consumers are thinking that the federal government is responsible for protecting the environment.

Looking forward, Rodriguez finds that the meat department will capture the next generation of consumers by offering value rooted in key consumer trends: convenience reimagined, guided meal experimentation, curated experiences and social media engagement.