OXON HILL, Md. — The 2026 Annual Meat Conference provided an in-depth look at the current and future market trends for the meat and poultry industries. An educational session titled 2026 Market Outlook for Meat and Poultry featured Lee Schulz, chief economist for Ever.Ag, Christine McCracken, executive director, animal protein for Rabobank, Leo Feler, chief economist for Numerator and Randy Blach, CEO for CattleFax. Through individual presentations, the experts discussed supply chain dynamics, pricing shifts and emerging consumer demand patterns, offering actionable insights for retailers, suppliers, processors and industry professionals.

Poultry market

According to Rabobank, the US poultry industry is on track for another good year, driven by smaller beef supplies and favorable feed costs. Feed costs are helping to offset higher labor, chick and grower costs following a challenging Q4 2025 for margins.

McCracken noted that broiler supply constraints are limiting supply flock, leading to a stronger focus on productivity. Still, genetics and disease remain a challenge for hatchability and livability. Though highly pathogenic avian influenza has been costly for the poultry industry, HPAI is less disruptive for broilers.

Though bird weights are expected to stabilize in 2026, there is an industrywide long-term shift toward heavier weight birds. McCracken said that greenfield opportunities for poultry are limited as the industry operates at high utilization, but producers expect line speed relief to continue.

Chicken is performing exceptionally well at QSR and retail but lagging in export and industrial channels. High price points for other meats and poultry are bolstering chicken's performance at retail, as well as strong demand for protein and an increased focus on consumer health. Chicken is largely considered a convenient protein option, further driving consumer interest. McCracken noted that poultry is set to continue thriving at retail, especially when positioned as a low-cost, convenient option for consumers. She also sees opportunity for poultry snacking occassions.

At foodservice, chicken continues to thrive despite weaker channel trends; operators are focused on pricing and shifting to dark meat and tenders to stay competitive. McCracken emphasized that global flavors continue to drive trial for chicken at foodservice. Chicken wings continue to underperform at foodservice, bringing opportunity to wings at retail.

Poultry exports continue to struggle, and chicken trade in particular is likely to remain volatile in 2026 with several potential challenges in top export markets. With weaker export performance, poultry is driving more domestic use. McCracken noted that the US used to export a lot of chicken paws to China annually. "With the exception of paws, we're able to place a lot of chicken in the US market," she said. McCracken sees export market potential for larger supplies of thighs and legs.

Financial strain for pork producers

In his presentation on the pork market, Ever.Ag's Schulz said pork prices are up, but slower than the rate of inflation. Pork production is set to reach a record high in 2026. The pork industry saw record-large exports for both volume and value in 2024, down a bit in 2025 but forecast to go back up to record levels in 2026, largely fueled by leading market Mexico.

Schulz noted it will take volume and price to grow the pork industry's share in the market. Costs are 31% higher for pork producers in 2025 than in 2020, highlighting the difficult economic environment producers are navigating. Hog production costs have fallen, but Ever.Ag finds that these costs will likely not fall much more. At these prices, losses are projected to begin in late 2026.

Schulz noted that farrow to finish returns have been positive for about 23 months, and the next nine months look positive. Overall carcass weights are up 1.4 pounds, an increase of 0.62%, in 2026.

Aside from profitability, a key concern for pork producers in 2026 is animal disease like PRRS and PEDV. These remain a supply risk for producers, packers and end users. Schulz noted that PRRS cumulative incidence is at the lowest level in the last 10 years, while PED cumulative incidence is at the highest level in that same period.

Struggle for cattle numbers, not beef supply

Dairy cow inventory is helping the beef cattle market navigate a record-low herd. During his presentation, Randy Blach offered his insights into the US cattle and beef market, noting that dairy cow inventory is helping the beef cattle market navigate a record-low herd. Despite a record-low beef herd, the dairy industry is seeing its biggest herd in several decades. Beef-dairy crossed fed slaughter is rapidly growing in the US market to help with low beef cattle numbers. In fact, 19% of fed slaughter today is for beef-dairy crossover.

Blach emphasized that the industry is not struggling with beef but is short on cattle inventory; there has been a 30% drop in cattle slaughter over the last three years.

Cattle imports from Mexico were halted in mid-2025 due to New World screwworm concerns, further restraining cattle supply. There is not an anticipated date to reopen access. Imports are helping cover those gaps, with 2025 seeing record-large beef imports to the US. Large amounts of imported beef are helping to meet the record-high beef demand, particularly for retail, where beef takes the lion's share of sales.

The industry is largely shifting away from commodity toward quality, as 85% of beef in the US market is Choice or Prime, while 12% is Select. From 2005 to 2025, that is a 51% increase in Choice and Prime grade, equal to 5.3 million head increase annually. This includes a 127% increase in the percentage of Upper 2/3 Choice and Prime, equal to 4.2 million head increase annually. Select Grade has seen a 66% decrease over those 20 years, a reduction of 6.7 million head annually.

To close the market outlook session, Blach noted that the US market currently has a record-large per capita supply of meat protein, and profitability has been positive for beef, pork and poultry producers. Looking ahead, Blach warned that the cattle industry risks losing more harvest capacity.

Meat industry professionals can utilize the insights from the AMC market outlook session to inform business decisions and understand market shifts. With demand for protein remaining strong, producers can leverage market insights to navigate economic uncertainty and capitalize on market momentum and consumer shopping preferences.